Missouri, a politically competitive swing state, has emerged as a microcosm of the broader factors that shaped the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections. With a close governor’s race and a highly contested US Senate seat, Missouri provides a case study to examine the complex interplay of issues, demographics, and campaign strategies that influenced this pivotal election. Demographic Shifts and the Polarization in the Heartland:
The urban-rural divide has been a major factor in the polarization of the heartland. Rural areas have been hit hard by economic decline and population loss as jobs have shifted to cities. This has led to feelings of resentment and alienation among rural voters, who feel that their concerns are not being heard by urban elites. These voters are more likely to be white, older, and less educated, and they are more likely to support Republican candidates who promise to restore their way of life. In contrast, urban areas have become more diverse and well-educated, and they are more likely to support Democratic candidates who support progressive policies. This divide is likely to continue to widen in the years to come, as the population of the United States becomes increasingly concentrated in urban areas.
| Demographic Group | 2016 Vote | 2020 Vote |
|—|—|—|
| White | Trump +20% | Trump +16% |
| Black | Clinton +89% | Biden +87% |
| Hispanic | Clinton +65% | Biden +63% |
| Asian | Clinton +59% | Biden +61% |
| College Graduate | Clinton +13% | Biden +19% |
| Non-College Graduate | Trump +29% | Trump +37% |
| Urban | Clinton +14% | Biden +19% |
| Rural | Trump +37% | Trump +43% |
In Conclusion
Missouri serves as a microcosm of the national political landscape, reflecting the deep divisions and challenges facing American democracy. While its outcome may not be definitive, it offers valuable insights into the forces that shaped the 2022 midterm elections and provides a roadmap for addressing the complex issues that will continue to impact the nation’s political trajectory.