Election Forecasts Try to Go Beyond the Polls. Are They Helping?
As election forecasts increasingly incorporate data beyond traditional polling, their accuracy has been debated. While some argue that these forecasts, such as those using social media and economic indicators, can provide a more comprehensive understanding of public opinion, others question their reliability. Supporters maintain that these forecasts can identify emerging trends that may not be captured by polls, while critics point to the potential for bias and noise in the alternative data sources. The debate continues as researchers and forecasters seek to improve the accuracy of their predictions.